Lack of Priority Causes Obama's Missile Defense to Fail

/PRNewswire/ -- Riki Ellison, Chairman and Founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA), www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org, has analyzed the recent missile test held out at Vandenberg Air Force Base earlier this week which failed. Ellison is one of the top lay experts in the field of missile defense in the world. His analysis is outlined below regarding this:

"The number one priority for ballistic missile defense as stated and outlined clearly by President Barack Obama is the defense of the United States homeland. The American public demands, supports and expects ballistic missile defense for the protection of the U.S. homeland.

"U.S. military and intelligence agencies have testified in Congressional hearings that the ballistic missile threat to the United States from North Korea is real and that Iran could have a capability as early as 2015 to strike the U.S. homeland. There are thirty Ground-Based Interceptors (GBI) deployed today that the Administration has deemed necessary to protect our nation from long-range ballistic missile threats. These thirty deployed GBIs also help dissuade North Korea and Iran from developing long-range missiles that could strike the U.S.

"For the military, especially those in United States Northern Command (NORTHCOM), to fulfill their mission of defending the U.S. there must be demonstrated consistent success in the GBI's capability to intercept and destroy an incoming ballistic missile. The mission is too important to our nation's national security for it to fall short.

"The last two GBI intercept tests, and the only two conducted under President Obama, have failed to intercept leaving a lack of confidence in the system and a perception of vulnerability to North Korea and Iran. The last time the GBI had two failed tests in a row was between 2003 and 2005 when the system was being initially developed and was not yet fully operational.

"More priority and better focus is required to understand the problem within the system that has been successful in eight out of fifteen tests. It will take time before answers as to why this test was a failure come to light, but urgency is required to clearly resolve the issue and fix the problem.

"Initial analysis of the failed test looks similar to the earlier failed test this year, when at the last minute the Exo-atmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV) failed to make the intercept. Tracking and discrimination information of the target from the sensors, most notably the Sea-based X-band radar (SBX), put the EKV in the right location. There has to be a focus on gathering a clear understanding of the root cause of the failure; from the first failure of the EKV this year to making the adjustments before launching a second similar test with a much more robust complex target and stretching the flight of the EKV to the farthest distance it has ever flown. This is especially important when these tests, including pre- and post-test analysis, cost the U.S. taxpayer over $150 million apiece from an already tight missile defense budget.

"Quality control will always be a challenge for a very complex system that has numerous points of failure linked to the sophisticated technology and coordination required to hit an approximately 6' long object traveling close to 15,000/MPH, 120 miles up in space with a missile launched thousands of miles away. Modernization is needed to reduce failure points across the system and increase its reliability. Modernization is also required for the sustainment of confidence in the system into the future; the system is expected to perform up to and possibly beyond 2030.

"This issue is even more acute with the EKV and its many possible failure points in both hardware and software. Currently the Administration sees modernization of the Ground-Based Midcourse System (GMD) as a low priority at best. This is reflected in the funding for the entire GMD system which at its peak accounted for more than thirty percent of the total missile defense budget but has been reduced to less than ten percent with minimal modernization funding.

"Despite the EKV missing the target, this past test performed extremely well in a number of areas. The sophisticated target missile, AN/TPY-2 Forward-Based Radar, SBX, GBI and command and control are all complex systems that were coordinated with great success. The tracking of the target missile was successfully transferred from the Forward-Based Radar to the SBX to the EKV. This led to the EKV being in position to make a realistic operational intercept. There were also upgraded Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense ships that tracked the target missile and perhaps could have taken an early shot. All of these were significant events that are critical to the confidence in the overall missile defense system as well as providing valuable information for future modeling and simulation testing.

"Also notable was the successful use of the Forward-Based Radar in Wake Island north of the target launch. This would duplicate, to some extent the positioning of that same radar in Turkey for an Iranian launch missile towards Europe or the United States.

"An early conclusion that could be drawn from this test would point to lack of priority and focus over the past eleven months towards resolving the root cause of the EKV failure, one of the most critical elements in the GMD system. There have been eight successes with the EKV in flight tests which would lead one to assume that the engineering and technology can be resolved if attention, time and priority are put forward. It is also of equal importance that priority of modernization for the GBIs and its overall system be addressed by the Administration as it is the system that upholds and brings confidence to the President's number one priority for missile defense: the U.S. homeland.

"When there are failures and frustration, we must always remember that the American public expects supports and will always demand protection of the U.S. homeland."

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U.S. Homeland Vulnerable to Iran Threat in 2015

/PRNewswire/ -- Riki Ellison, Founder and Chairman of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA), www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org has made some comments on the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing held on Capitol Hill Wednesday. The purpose of the hearing was to receive testimony on ballistic missile defense policies and programs in review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2011. Ellison is one of the foremost lay experts in the field of missile defense. Ellison's comments include the following statements:

"Over the past week, Congress held three public hearings on missile defense plans for 2011 and beyond. Hearings were held by the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee, the Senate Armed Service Committee led by Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI) and the Ranking Member John McCain (R-AZ) on Tuesday and most recently the Defense Subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee led by the Chairman Daniel Inouye (D-HI) on Wednesday.

"During these hearings, the testimony of President Barack Obama's appointees in the Department of Defense and the Director of the Missile Defense Agency, Lt. Gen. Patrick O'Reilly, exposed five fundamental elements of the administration's missile defense plan:

1. Iran, with foreign assistance (North Korea), could have the ability to
strike the U.S. homeland with an intercontinental ballistic missile
(ICBM) by 2015.
2. In the current administration's plan, the Phased Adaptive Approach
(PAA), there will be a second shot capability based in Europe to defend
the U.S. homeland from an Iranian ICBM in 2020. This is dependent on
the development, testing and deployment, of a new SM-3 Block 2B missile
and the integration that allows for early intercept by launch and
engage on remote sensors including basing Aegis Ashore platforms in
Europe.
3. The administration's current missile defense plan for the defense of
the U.S. homeland is to rely on 30 Ground-Based Interceptors (GBI's),
26 based in Alaska and 4 in California until 2032. They would provide
protection against a maximum of 15 incoming ICBMs, using two GBIs per
ICBM with a shoot, look, and shoot doctrine. Due to distance, parts of
Eastern United States will not have the same confidence of protection
as the remaining U.S. Homeland from an ICBM threat from Iran.
4. There is a gap of protection and vulnerability against an ICBM launched
from Iran at the U.S. homeland, especially to significant parts of the
east coast, for a minimum of 5 years in the President's plan for
missile defense, provided that Iran acquires ICBM capability by 2015.
5. In regards to a hedge for the existent gap in protection from an ICBM
attack from Iran against the U.S. homeland, Lt. Gen. Patrick O'Reilly
presented three options:
-- Fully outfitting missile field 2 in Fort Greely, Alaska with GBIs
adding 8 more GBIs to the existing 30 GBIs,
-- Testing the two-stage GBI, the missile in June of this year, the
same missile system intended to be deployed in Poland for the
canceled 3rd site of the previous administration.
-- Having additional shot opportunities, against an ICBM from Iran,
with two-stage missiles.


"The recent Congressional hearings on missile defense have made it abundantly clear to the American public that a gap exists in the missile protection of the U.S. homeland against Iran. It is also apparent that the administration's plans to develop and deploy a hedge to fill that gap have not adequately been addressed. The administration needs to move forward with urgency for a robust testing and deployment plan of the two-stage GBI on or before 2015 to ensure full protection of the U.S. homeland from Iran.

"The protection of the U.S. homeland from ballistic missiles is the declared and stated number one priority of President Obama's administration missile defense policy."

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Obama's Missile Defense Plan Does Not Address Middle East

/PRNewswire/ -- Riki Ellison, Founder and Chairman of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA), www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org, explains why and how the President's missile defense plan does not address the Middle East. Ellison is one of the foremost lay experts in the field of missile defense. Ellison's comments include the following:

"President Obama's missile defense plan is primarily focused on a four phase timeline approach starting in 2013 and ending in 2020 to protect Europe and US deployed forces needs to adequately address the Middle East Region first as well as increase the urgency to ensure that timelines are met to protect Europe and a significant hedge to deploy missile defenses quicker if required. The Middle East region has not been directly addressed by the President's Plan and would require at least 2 or more forward-based sensors, as well as a complete deployment of a fully layered missile defense of the current systems to be able to handle loft, minimum energy and depressed trajectories of incoming missiles towards the Middle East and Europe."

"There are serious challenges both politically and technically that have to be overcome. The foremost being placement of forward-based sensors whether air, land, space or air around the periphery of Iran and the full integration of their information into the overall missile defense system to enable both engage and intercept by using remote forward-based sensors. If the system cannot see, detect, track and confirm a missile intercept, it doesn't matter how many defensive interceptors you have, they are simply ineffective without sensors. Without this integrated sensor capability, the system cannot provide adequate coverage nor can it handle the volume of missiles which the President's plan is directed to do."

"To date the country of Turkey, which is the ideal location for forward-based sensors, is rebuking any form of missile defense on their soil as reported last week by the local Milliyet. Both Russia and Iran will perceive that [deployment] as a threat ... such technology will turn Turkey into a legitimate target for Iran's medium and shorter range missiles. Turkey opposes the location of US missile defense in its territory. A second resort, to place US Ships deployed in the Black Sea, is restricted by international treaty. Deployment of sensors in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Balkan States such as Greece, Romania or Bulgaria will likely result in similar feelings as Turkey, and if deployed in the Balkans, would further reduce valuable time needed to track the missile effectively and reduces the missile coverage of Iran because of the further distance. If deployed only in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia or UAE, there would be inadequate coverage of Iranian threats to Europe, as well as possible sharing of the information. Additionally, a mutual agreement with Russia on the use of its sensors near Iran seems nearly impossible to obtain and would not provide the full coverage necessary to protect all of Europe and the Middle East."

Ellison closed his remarks with: "There needs to be a much greater sense of urgency within our government to adequately deploy these current and new systems as well as provide a test bed in Hawaii to prove out the system that looks to be the cornerstone of the President's missile defense plan to protect Europe. The test bed in Hawaii is currently being held for four to six months or more as military requirements have not been set even though funds have been set aside for the test bed."

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U.S. Senate Challenges President Obama With Missile Defense Vote

/PRNewswire/ -- Riki Ellison, President and Chairman of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA), www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org has reviewed the missile defense vote in the Senate on Tuesday, October 6th, and concluded that the Senate wants to keep open the option for developing and potentially basing the ground-based interceptor in either Europe or the U.S. He informed MDAA members of this in an Alert . His comments and observations include the following:

"Last night, Members of the United States Senate passed, with overwhelming support, an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act, directing Lt. General Patrick O'Reilly, Director of the Missile Defense Agency, to provide options by February 1st next year to deploy an additional Ground-Based Interceptor site in Europe or the United States to provide defense for our nation against future long-range missiles from Iran. The Amendment SA 2616, further appropriated $151 million for the development and testing of the two-stage Ground-Based Interceptor, which was developed for the recently canceled European missile defense site, at Redzikowo, Poland. This two-stage Ground-Based Interceptor missile is in place as two are built and one of them is due to be launched and tested next June, as there remains 'high-confidence' in its capability, since it is exactly the same technology as the currently deployed three-stage Ground-Based Interceptor without the third stage."

"This is a positive first step by our nation's congressional representatives to address the lack of equal and adequate long range missile protection to our Eastern and Southeastern regions of our nation from Iran that was not adequately addressed in President Obama's 'new missile defense architecture.' In President Obama's plan, equal long-range missile protection of the United States from Iran would be provided by a sea- and land-based, non-existent and untested SM-3 Block-2 missile starting in 2020. In addition, these future mobile SM-3 interceptors with ICBM capability have recently become controversial with Russia as they will be deployed in mass, suggesting a diplomatic possibility that they may not be deployed. To provide a 'hedge' against Iran ballistic missile development, President Obama needs to rapidly accelerate the SM-3 Block 2 missile development and provide an additional ground-based missile defense site with interceptors in the United States or Europe."

"It should be noted that two years ago, the Combat Commander of NORTHCOM General Renuart, who is directly responsible for the protection of the United States, including Hawaii and Alaska, completed a NORTHCOM GBI study to look at other alternatives to the recently canceled site in Poland to provide adequate long-range missile defense to North America. This study concluded and recommended that a previous Nike Zeus missile defense site of the 1960's at Fort Drum located in upper New York was the most preferable option. A missile defense site at Fort Drum, New York would provide the necessary 'high confidence' and equal protection to the Eastern and Southeastern United States from a long-range ballistic missile threat from Iran that is not in place today. Having a site located in the United States in a previous missile location would lower the risk, expedite the deployment and provide added necessary long-range protection to the United States within three years from now, seven years or more faster than the current missile defense architecture plan announced by Secretary of Defense Gates and President Obama."

Ellison closed his remarks saying: "We at MDAA concur with the Members of the Senate who drafted this amendment and all those who overwhelmingly voted for it."

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Israel's Protection from Iran Rests With President Obama

/PRNewswire/ -- Riki Ellison, Chairman and Founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA), www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org, has analyzed the current situation with Iran and given his comments below. Ellison is one of the top lay experts in missile defense in the world:

A momentous week of unveiling Iran's second nuclear site, which confirmed their intention to disperse and protect non-civilian nuclear development, coupled with their ballistic missile launches over the weekend from 90 miles to 1,200 miles requires close examination of President Obama's new direction of our nation's missile defense. Iran has not invested nor demonstrated interest in developing or deploying large scale aircraft further exemplifying its intent to project power beyond its borders with ballistic missiles and progress down an aggressive path to become a new nuclear power that will threaten its national security interests. The overall intelligence assessment of Iran has not changed from previous National Intelligence Estimates of years past, as Iran steadily maintains its development to have ballistic capability by 2015 or earlier to strike Europe and the United States. President Obama's new missile defense architecture has its core component of Aegis Ashore (land based SM3) to be deployed at the earliest by 2018 and a long range SM3 Block II deployed missile to protect the US and Europe from long range missiles by 2020. The previous Administration missile defense plan had deployments in place to protect Europe and the US by 2015, three to five years earlier than the current plan. This Administration is betting the security of our nation, our 80,000 deployed men and women deployed in Europe and our allies, to be unprotected and not be threatened by Iran, on a shift in their perception of an intelligence estimate by the Department of Defense that shows that Iran has slowed down its development and deployment of ballistic missiles. Our nation will put forward an estimated minimum of 3.5 billion to 4 billion U.S. tax dollars and another 1 billion dollars (if you include the cost of the Aegis ships) for a total of around 5 billion U.S. tax dollars to protect our troops, allies and friends in Europe. For the state of Israel, the ballistic missile threat from Iran is here today - as demonstrated by the Iranian missiles fired this weekend that went beyond the range of Israel. Added to this reality, the two Iranian nuclear sites hidden and well-protected deep underground pose an excruciating national security issue for Israel and for the Middle East region. If Israel is not protected nor has adequate missile defense to prevent zero leakage from ballistic missiles on its major cities, it will be provoked to unilaterally protect itself and use pre-emptive military action. This becomes a considerable challenge when the Iranian nuclear facilities are heavily fortified underground, bunker buster bombs and air re-fuelers for Israel aircraft have to be provided by the United States with President Obama's permission, as well as the potential of a retaliatory ballistic missile strike by Iran whether Israel succeeds or not.

Israel today does not have the missile defense protection it needs as it is reliant on old, antiquated explosive technology in its Arrow program and does not have midcourse interceptors to provide a layered defense that would give an additional option to the government there. It is paramount that the United States provide elements of our current missile defense systems such as the Patriot, the THAAD, the Aegis and the future Aegis Ashore to Israel as well as support Israel's own domestic developments of missile defense as a first priority in President Obama's new missile defense architecture. This Administration not only needs to support in resources all of what it has announced, President Obama needs to accelerate with urgency its development and deployment of his new missile defense architecture to meet the threat or face the grave consequences of putting Israel, our troops, our allies and our nation at high and unnecessary risk. This is too high of a gamble to bet the national security of our nation and others with a positive diplomatic outcome that has a history of failures on US and international persuasion and influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Smoke and mirrors, political posturing and appeasement is not the right course of action to have confidence to protect our people and those of the world from a real and present danger.

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Defense Agency Simulates Biological Attack on Pentagon

The risk of attack against senior government and military officials always has been high, making protection of the Pentagon and other buildings in the national capital area a top priority, a senior official involved with a recent bio-attack drill said.

Paul Benda and Christina Murata -- director and deputy director, respectively, of the Pentagon Force Protection Agency's chemical, radiological, nuclear and explosives directorate -- spoke about preparing for a biological attack on the Pentagon during a July 22 webcast of "Armed with Science: Research and Applications for the Modern Military" on Pentagon Web Radio.

Benda and Murata explained how they used a commercial garden powder to simulate a biological attack in a July 11 test of response procedures and decontamination methods, and how the findings of their test will affect future response to bio-weapon attacks.

More than 200 people participated in the test, including 87 volunteers who were exposed to the garden powder and washed down. The Pentagon Force Protection Agency has conducted tests regularly since 2005 to gather data to better protect people in the event of a biological attack.

"We spread [the powder] across the reservation," Benda said. "We had volunteers that got exposed to it. The building was exposed to it. We tracked where this powder went and where it went on our volunteers."

The directorate tested different options for decontamination, from portable showers to what Benda described as a "wall of water." More than a dozen organizations participated in the test in hopes of finding the easiest and most effective methods.

"We wanted to compare the different decontamination strategies," Benda said. "What's the fastest way to clean these people? What works the best?"

The quickest, most effective cleaner they found was water, Murata said. Simply flushing items with water cleaned more than 95 percent of contaminants from the road and more than 90 percent from vehicles.

"It's that old fireman's adage that there's no problem that enough water can't cure," Murata said. "Point for point, water did the best."

For personnel contaminated with a biological weapon, the best cleaning method was to make a "wall" of water using five fire trucks. Four pumper trucks fired water against each other while a ladder truck released water from above. Volunteers walked through the streams, scrubbing their body and hair to remove contaminants.

"This is a standard capability that every fire department has," Benda said. "Whether it's a volunteer fire department or a professional fire department, they're able to use their standard nozzles, connected to a hydrant, to create this decontamination capability."

The beauty of using fire trucks, beyond their accessibility regardless of location, is their effectiveness. It's not a new technology, but it performs on par with other decontamination methods.

"It works as well, if not better than specific technologies, and it gives us faster through-put," Benda said.

Once the team sorts the data from this test and figures out which questions have been answered and what new questions have arisen, they'll share the findings and begin planning for the next test.

And though certain information in tests related to security for Defense Department and other government employees is safeguarded, the information that applies to organizations nationwide will be spread through professional conferences and published articles.

"We do our best to get the information out that will protect the nation as a whole," Benda said.

By Ian Graham
Special to American Forces Press Service
(Ian Graham works in the Defense Media Activity's emerging media directorate.)
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Missile Defense Reviews to Focus on Current, Long-Term Challenges

North Korea and Iran pose serious nuclear and missile proliferation concerns for the United States and other nations and will be major considerations in the U.S ballistic missile defense review, Deputy Defense Secretary William J. Lynn III told the Senate Armed Services Committee Monday.

"The risks and dangers from missile proliferation are growing problems," Lynn said. "The president has made clear that we will move forward with missile defenses. They're affordable, proven and responsive to the threat."

Lynn joined other defense leaders in describing the ballistic missile threat and reviews of missile defense policy and planning under way to address current as well as long-term security challenges.

The recently initiated Ballistic Missile Defense Review and other related reviews, he said, will focus on challenges posed by violent extremist movements, the spread of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems, rising powers with sophisticated weapons and failed or failing threats, Lynn told the panel.

Marine Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, noted that the global nature of the threats and the rapid pace of technological change imposes big challenges on any deterrent strategy.

"No longer will a monolithic, mutual-assured destruction approach deter our aggressors," Cartwright said. "Our deterrent strategy will need to handle the rapid advances in technologies across a broad range of threats and conditions."

Several broad principles will guide the efforts:

• Defending the United States from rogue states and protecting U.S. forces.

This includes more effective theater missile defenses and more capabilities to warfighters provided through shorter-range and mobile missile defense systems, Lynn explained. The fiscal 2010 budget request includes an additional $900 million to field more systems such as the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense, Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense ships and Standard Missile-3 interceptors to defend deployed forces and allies, he said.

• Preparing for emerging threats.

This effort calls for continued investment in national missile defense systems upgrades
and research and development to pursue new and more effective technologies to confront theater missile threats, Lynn said.

• Ensuring the effectiveness of U.S. missile defenses.

Lynn emphasized the need for robust testing, while terminating the troubled kinetic energy interceptor and multiple kill vehicle programs and returning the airborne laser to a technology demonstration program.

• Using missile defense as the basis for fostering international defense cooperation.

No final decisions have been made regarding missile defense in Europe, Lynn told the panel. However, the U.S. approach to missile defense there will be to seek cooperation with international partners, including Russia, to reduce the threat from Iran.

Lynn called ballistic missile defenses an important part of current and future national strategy that must be integrated into broader deterrence and alliance considerations.

"Missile defenses play a key role in both responding to current threats and hedging against future contingencies," he told the senators. "As we move forward with missile defense plans and programs, the Department of Defense will ensure they are affordable, effective and responsive to the risks and threats that confront the United States, our friends and our allies."

Army Lt. Gen. Patrick J. O'Reilly, director of the Missile Defense Agency, said the $7.8 billion requested for missile defense in the fiscal 2010 budget will support these endeavors.

This funding, he said, will focus on three areas of improvement: current protection against theater and rogue nation threats, the United States' hedge against future threats and improving the acquisition of U.S. missile defense capability.

"Missile defense is expensive, but the cost of mission failure can also be very high," O'Reilly said, emphasizing that the system must be both affordable and effective.

"The department is proposing a balanced program to develop, rigorously test and field an integrated [ballistic missile defense system] architecture to counter existing regional threats, maintain our limited [intercontinental ballistic missile] defense, develop new technologies to address future risks and become more operationally and cost-effective as we prepare to protect against the more uncertain threats of the future," he said.

By Donna Miles
American Forces Press Service

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Why Ballistic Missile Defense is Critical

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Discussions Aim to Resolve U.S. Survey Ship Incident

The incident in the South China Sea involving a U.S. ocean surveillance ship is serious enough to merit face-to-face discussions between U.S. and Chinese officials, Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell said today.

The USNS Impeccable – an unarmed Military Sealift Command vessel -- was conducting operations in international waters 70 miles south of Hainan Island on March 8 when the ship was surrounded and harassed by five Chinese vessels.

Morrell said the U.S. defense attaché in Beijing has been talking with China's defense ministry about the incident.

The Chinese defense attaché also is speaking with Defense Department officials.

"[The incident] is serious enough that we believe it requires face-to-face talks to find out what was going on here and to ensure that there are no further incidents of this nature in the future," Morrell said.

Morrell reiterated the U.S. position that the Impeccable was performing its mission in international waters.

"We hope that the Chinese would behave in a similar way, that is, according to international law," he said. "Furthermore, this incident is not at all consistent with the expressed desire of both governments to build a closer relationship, particularly a closer military-to-military relationship."

The U.S. position is that if a ship is lawfully operating in international waters, "that that is legal and permitted, and there should be no ... reason to interfere with those operations," Morrell said.

Officials are hopeful that the conversations between the two nations will clear up any misunderstandings about this incident and ensure it doesn't happen again, he added.

By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service

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